Monday, January 27, 2014

Mortgage Update





Interest Rate Update

Interest rates have eased down a tiny bit over the last few weeks. Some "experts" say rates could dip down again for a short period of time to keep the housing market moving.

Back From The Brink

Provisions of the Dodd-Frank Law

Lots of new regulations and guidelines go into effect today. Lots of talk about how it will make loans harder to get but in reality there should not be much of a change. More paperwork of course but that should be the extent of it. There are some new calculations limiting maximum fees that can be charged but that will only effect those lenders that overcharge anyway. There is some new requirements that deal with a persons Ability to Repay the loan but again most of that has already been worked into the underwriting process.

How Does This Affect You ?

Ask questions and discuss what is going on in the industry. The biggest problem we continue to see is sourcing of monies. Because of the Anti-Money Laundering guidelines lenders contin-ue to hammer on sourcing deposits, meticulous paperwork trail of money transfers, and continu-ally needed the "most current" statements and printouts. When talking with prospective buyers make them aware they have to be on financial lockdown until the process is complete.



30 Year Fixed up to $417,000 4.125% to 4.50%
30 Year Fixed "Agency" up to $625,500 4.375% to 4.625%
30 Year Fixed FHA up to $417,000 3.75% to 4.25%
30 Year Fixed FHA "Jumbo" up to $729,500 3.875% to 4.25%

Saturday, January 25, 2014

Market Matters

Adjustable-rate mortgages regain popularity as prices, rates rise
Source: LA Times  

Adjustable-rate mortgages are again gaining in popularity despite practically vanishing during the housing bust. Since home prices and interest rates rose last year, more people have turned to adjustable mortgages to keep their monthly payments affordable, with such mortgages offering a lower initial rate. However, the rate can rise over time with market changes.
Read the full story 

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Housing Market 2014: What Buyers, Sellers Should Brace for Now
Source: AOL
 
Experts contend that higher mortgage rates and increased inventory in 2014 along with looser mortgage lending standards will be key factors to prepare for in the new year. Some expect higher prices to lead investors out of the market.
Read the full story
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Mortgage Rate Swings May Mean “Bumpy” 2014 Housing Market
Source: Wall Street Journal
Experts posit that an important trend could continue in 2014 due to the inversely proportional relationship between the average of mortgage interest rates and new-home sales. Simply put, as interest rates go up, demand from would-be homeowners drops, and if rates change significantly, then the 2014 housing market will feel the effects.
Making sense of the story
  • During 2013, increases in mortgage rates corresponded with declines in home buying, and in light of shifts in the Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus effort, the trend is expected to continue.
  • When the Fed first announced it would consider scaling back its bond-buying program, mortgage interest rates spiked in May. As a result, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales dropped by 4 percent from the prior month.
  • In contrast, mortgage rates dropped by three-tenths of a percentage point during October just as new home sales surged 18 percent.
  • In mid-December, the Fed announced that it will begin tapering its asset purchase program, but the Fed is only reducing its monthly buys of mortgage securities and Treasuries by just $10 billion.
  • If mortgage interest rates increase a little, some analysts have stressed that further rate increases will see the recovery slow rather than reverse.
  • The interest rate on U.S. Treasury notes is also increasing, which could signal higher interest rates ahead because it is used as a reference point for the cost of borrowed money for U.S. consumers and businesses.
Read the full story


Talking Points …
  • According to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.), seasonal factors, combined with shrinking housing affordability, cooled California pending home sales from both the previous month and year in November.
  • C.A.R.’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) indicates that pending home sales dropped 13.6 percent in November to 93.8, down from a revised 108.6 in October, based on signed contracts. Pending sales were down 9.4 percent from the 103.5 index recorded in November 2012.
  • Distressed sales were down by nearly two-thirds from a year ago, when the share was 35.4 percent.  Twenty-one of the 38 reported counties showed a month-to-month decrease in the share of distressed sales, with Santa Clara County having the lowest share at 4 percent.

Monday, January 6, 2014

Newsline

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Rise in Third Quarter
Data through September 2013, released by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that the U.S. National Home Price Index rose 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2013 and 11.2 percent over the last four quarters.

In September, the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 0.7 percent month-over-month and 13.3 percent year-over-year. While 13 of 20 cities posted higher year-over-year growth rates, 19 cities had lower monthly returns in September than August.
More info
Building Permits Rise in October
Building permits for single-family houses rose 0.8 percent in October to a rate of 620,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Dept. of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced this week. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 387,000 in October.

The Census Bureau and HUD were not able to gather data to report housing starts in October due to the lapse in federal funding during the government shutdown.
More info
California Pending Home Sales Higher in October
California pending home sales reversed a two-month decline to post higher in October, but were down from a year earlier, C.A.R. recently reported.

California pending home sales rose in October, with the Pending Home Sales Index climbing 2.5 percent in October to 109.3, up from 106.7 in September, based on signed contracts.  The monthly increase was considerably greater than the average September-to-October change of 0.7 percent over the past five years.  Pending sales were down 9.9 percent from the 121.2 index recorded in October 2012.  Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity, providing information on the future direction of the market.

The share of equity sales – or non-distressed property sales – dipped slightly in October, but still made up more than eight in 10 sales, marking the fourth straight month that equity sales have been more than 80 percent of total sales. The share of equity sales in October dipped to 85.5 percent, down from 85.7 percent in September.  Equity sales made up 63.2 percent of sales in October 2012.

The combined share of all distressed property sales edged up slightly in October, inching up to 14.5 percent, up from 14.3 percent in September but down sharply from 36.8 percent in October 2012.  However, 16 of the 38 reported counties showed a month-to-month decrease in the share of distressed sales, with San Mateo County having the lowest share at 3 percent.
More info
U.S. House Prices Rise in Third Quarter
Home prices nationwide rose 2 percent in the third quarter compared with the second quarter, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. This is the ninth consecutive quarterly price increase in the purchase-only, seasonally adjusted index and marks the first time since 2009 that the national house price level is higher than it was five years ago.

The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Compared with last year, house prices rose 8.4 percent from the third quarter of 2012 to the third quarter of 2013. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for September was up 0.3 percent from August.

Significant Findings:
  • The seasonally adjusted, purchase-only HPI rose in 48 states and in the District of Columbia during the third quarter. Top 5 in annual appreciation: 1) Nevada 2) California 3) Arizona 4) Florida and 5) Washington.
  • Of the nine census divisions, the Pacific division experienced the strongest increase in the latest quarter, posting a 4.2 percent increase and a 19.2 percent increase since last year. House prices were weakest in the East South Central division, where prices increased 0.8 percent from the prior quarter.
  • As measured with purchase-only indexes for the 100 most populated metropolitan areas in the U.S., third quarter price increases were greatest in the Stockton-Lodi, Calif. Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), where prices increased 8.3 percent. Prices were weakest in the Virginia-Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC MSA, where they fell 2.2 percent.
  • Over the past year, only one MSA —Winston-Salem, NC — had a negative appreciation rate, and 11 of the 20 MSAs with the highest appreciation rates were in California.
  • The monthly seasonally adjusted purchase-only index for the U.S. has increased for the last 20 consecutive months.
More info
Consumer Confidence Declines Again in November
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had decreased sharply in October, declined again in November. The Index now stands at 70.4 (1985=100), down from 72.4 in October. The Present Situation Index edged down to 72 from 72.6, and the Expectations Index declined to 69.3 from 72.2 last month.

Consumers’ assessment of overall current conditions decreased slightly, with those claiming business conditions are “good” edging up to 19.9 percent from 19.5 percent, and those claiming business conditions are “bad” increasing to 25.2 percent from 23 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was little changed. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” ticked up to 11.8 percent from 11.6 percent, while those saying jobs are “hard to get” decreased slightly to 34.0 percent from 34.9 percent.
More info
Fast Facts
Calif. median home price: October 2013: 
  • California: $427,290
  • Calif. highest median home price by region/county October 2013: Marin, $959,740
  • Calif. lowest median home price by region/county October 2013: Glenn, $125,000
Calif. Pending Home Sales Index: October 2013: Increased 2.5 percent from 106.7 in September to 109.3 in October.
 
Calif. Traditional Housing Affordability Index: Third Quarter 2013: 32 percent (Source: C.A.R.)

Mortgage rates: Week ending 11/27/2013 (Source: Freddie Mac)
  • 30-yr. fixed: 4.29% fees/points: 0.7%
  • 15-yr. fixed: 3.30% fees/points: 0.7%
  • 1-yr. adjustable: 2.60% Fees/points: 0.4%

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Short Sales and Foreclosures

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